Expected Goals

Expected goals, goals against and points
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Matchday 616 – 18 October 2026

Expected Goals per Match

Result above the bars, gold = against xG · scale 0–3.5
Friday, 16 October 2026
Eintracht Frankfurt1.27
1 : 0
1.021. FC Köln
Saturday, 17 October 2026
1. FC Union Berlin0.94
0 : 0
1.00Borussia Dortmund
Hamburger SV1.68
1 : 0
2.65VfB Stuttgart
SV Werder Bremen1.91
2 : 2
1.37SC Paderborn 07
SV 07 Elversberg3.01
4 : 3
2.24FC Augsburg
FC Schalke 040.41
0 : 1
1.571. FSV Mainz 05
FC Bayern München5.02
6 : 1
0.70RB Leipzig
Sunday, 18 October 2026
Bayer 04 Leverkusen1.85
2 : 1
1.21SC Freiburg
Borussia Mönchengladbach0.76
1 : 2
2.17TSG 1899 Hoffenheim

Table by xP

No.
Club
MP
Pts
xP
+/−
Real
1
6
14
16.6
−2.59
1
2
6
13
13.1
−0.10
4▼2
3
6
10
12.3
−2.27
5▼2
4
6
13
12.2
+0.84
3▲1
5
6
14
12.0
+1.97
2▲3
6
6
9
10.6
−1.62
7▼1
7
6
7
8.5
−1.52
12▼5
8
6
6
8.5
−2.50
14▼6
9
6
8
7.5
+0.53
11▼2
10
6
9
7.4
+1.58
8▲2
11
6
6
7.2
−1.25
13▼2
12
6
10
6.1
+3.87
6▲6
13
6
8
5.8
+2.21
10▲3
14
6
5
5.7
−0.75
17▼3
15
6
9
5.5
+3.46
9▲6
16
6
5
5.0
−0.01
15▲1
17
6
5
5.0
±0.00
16▲1
18
6
0
3.0
−2.97
18
Sorted by xP. “Real” is the position in the actual table; ▲ means the team sits higher than its xP suggests.
xG
The sum of the goal probability of every shot a team takes.
xGA
The same, for every shot a team allows.
xP
Expected points, calculated from the xG values of every match.

Final table forecast

90% interval · 10,000 simulations
No.
Club
Pts
MP left
Final points
Range
Title
Top 4
Last 3
1
FC Bayern München
14
28
58–80
66%
97%
<1%
2
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
13
28
50–72
13%
74%
<1%
3
Borussia Dortmund
14
28
48–71
9%
66%
<1%
4
SC Freiburg
13
28
46–69
7%
55%
<1%
5
1. FSV Mainz 05
10
28
44–67
4%
43%
<1%
6
RB Leipzig
9
28
40–63
1%
23%
2%
7
SV Werder Bremen
9
28
36–58
<1%
7%
7%
8
1. FC Köln
7
28
35–57
<1%
7%
9%
9
SV 07 Elversberg
10
28
35–57
<1%
6%
8%
10
Eintracht Frankfurt
8
28
34–56
<1%
5%
11%
11
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim
6
28
33–57
<1%
5%
11%
12
FC Augsburg
8
28
33–55
<1%
4%
13%
13
VfB Stuttgart
6
28
32–55
<1%
4%
14%
14
Hamburger SV
9
28
32–54
<1%
2%
17%
15
SC Paderborn 07
5
28
27–50
–
<1%
37%
16
FC Schalke 04
5
28
27–49
<1%
<1%
42%
17
1. FC Union Berlin
5
28
27–49
–
<1%
44%
18
Borussia Mönchengladbach
0
28
19–41
–
<1%
83%
90% range of final pointsmedian

Current points plus 10,000 simulated runs of the remaining fixtures. Each team's attack and defence is estimated from its xG and xGA so far (pulled towards the league average early in the season), including home advantage. Team strength itself is treated as known, so the real uncertainty is somewhat wider.

Strength of schedule

Hardest remaining schedule first
No.
Club
Next 6 opponents
Rest
So far
1
FC Schalke 041. FC Union Berlin (A)Bayer 04 LeverkusenFC Bayern München (A)SV 07 ElversbergFC Augsburg (A)
1.37
1.52
2
Bayer 04 LeverkusenSV Werder Bremen (A)FC Schalke 04Eintracht Frankfurt (A)FC AugsburgSC Freiburg (A)
1.38
1.49
3
RB Leipzig (A)1. FSV Mainz 05Borussia Dortmund (A)SC Freiburg1. FC Köln (A)VfB Stuttgart
1.39
1.41
4
SV Werder BremenSV 07 Elversberg (A)FC Bayern MünchenFC Augsburg (A)1. FC Union BerlinRB Leipzig (A)
1.39
1.53
5
FC Augsburg (A)1. FC KölnSC Freiburg (A)RB Leipzig1. FSV Mainz 05 (A)Hamburger SV
1.39
1.37
6
Eintracht FrankfurtFC Bayern München (A)SV 07 ElversbergBorussia Mönchengladbach (A)Bayer 04 LeverkusenFC Schalke 04 (A)
1.39
1.52
7
VfB Stuttgart (A)SC Paderborn 07Hamburger SV (A)Borussia DortmundSV Werder Bremen (A)Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)
1.39
1.32
8
FC Bayern MünchenFC Augsburg (A)1. FC Union BerlinSV 07 Elversberg (A)RB LeipzigTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
1.39
1.50
9
Borussia Dortmund (A)Hamburger SVSC Paderborn 07 (A)TSG 1899 HoffenheimVfB Stuttgart (A)SV Werder Bremen
1.40
1.36
10
1. FSV Mainz 05 (A)TSG 1899 HoffenheimVfB Stuttgart (A)Hamburger SVBorussia MönchengladbachEintracht Frankfurt (A)
1.40
1.37
11
1. FC Köln (A)RB LeipzigTSG 1899 Hoffenheim (A)VfB StuttgartSC Paderborn 07 (A)Borussia Dortmund
1.40
1.31
12
SC Paderborn 07 (A)Eintracht Frankfurt (A)Borussia MönchengladbachSV Werder Bremen (A)FC Bayern München1. FC Union Berlin (A)
1.40
1.31
13
Hamburger SVBorussia Mönchengladbach (A)Eintracht FrankfurtBayer 04 Leverkusen (A)FC Schalke 04FC Bayern München (A)
1.40
1.31
14
1. FC Union BerlinSC FreiburgRB Leipzig (A)1. FSV Mainz 05TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (A)1. FC Köln
1.40
1.33
15
SV 07 ElversbergFC Schalke 04 (A)FC Augsburg1. FC Union Berlin (A)SC Freiburg (A)1. FSV Mainz 05
1.41
1.38
16
SC Freiburg (A)Borussia Dortmund1. FSV Mainz 05 (A)1. FC KölnHamburger SV (A)SC Paderborn 07
1.41
1.51
17
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (A)VfB Stuttgart1. FC Köln (A)SC Paderborn 07Borussia Dortmund (A)Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.42
1.38
18
Borussia MönchengladbachBayer 04 Leverkusen (A)SV Werder BremenFC Schalke 04 (A)Eintracht FrankfurtSV 07 Elversberg (A)
1.42
1.26
hard → easyEach value is the expected points an average team would take against that opponent, at that venue. Lower means a tougher fixture. Opponent strength comes from xG and is the same model as the forecast. Away fixtures are marked (A).