Expected Goals

Expected goals, goals against and points
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Matchday 106 – 8 November 2026

Expected Goals per Match

Result above the bars, gold = against xG · scale 0–3.5
Friday, 6 November 2026
Everton FC–
– : –
–Coventry City FC
Saturday, 7 November 2026
Leeds United FC–
– : –
–Tottenham Hotspur FC
Arsenal FC–
– : –
–Hull City AFC
Fulham FC–
– : –
–Newcastle United FC
Nottingham Forest FC–
– : –
–Manchester City FC
Sunday, 8 November 2026
Crystal Palace FC–
– : –
–Liverpool FC
Sunderland AFC–
– : –
–Chelsea FC
Ipswich Town FC–
– : –
–AFC Bournemouth
Brighton & Hove Albion FC–
– : –
–Brentford FC
Manchester United FC–
– : –
–Aston Villa FC

Table by xP

No.
Club
MP
Pts
xP
+/−
Real
1
7
21
14.4
+6.58
1
2
7
18
13.5
+4.53
2
3
7
16
13.0
+2.98
3
4
7
6
12.4
−6.37
15▼11
5
7
5
12.0
−6.99
19▼14
6
7
10
10.8
−0.77
6
7
7
10
10.5
−0.50
8▼1
8
7
12
10.4
+1.64
5▲3
9
7
10
10.0
−0.01
7▲2
10
7
7
9.6
−2.61
13▼3
11
7
5
9.5
−4.54
18▼7
12
7
13
9.3
+3.72
4▲8
13
7
6
8.9
−2.94
16▼3
14
7
4
8.1
−4.08
20▼6
15
7
8
8.0
−0.03
12▲3
16
7
9
7.0
+1.95
9▲7
17
7
8
7.0
+1.02
11▲6
18
7
9
6.9
+2.11
10▲8
19
7
6
6.9
−0.88
17▲2
20
7
7
6.4
+0.63
14▲6
Sorted by xP. “Real” is the position in the actual table; ▲ means the team sits higher than its xP suggests.
xG
The sum of the goal probability of every shot a team takes.
xGA
The same, for every shot a team allows.
xP
Expected points, calculated from the xG values of every match.

Final table forecast

90% interval · 10,000 simulations
No.
Club
Pts
MP left
Final points
Range
Title
Top 4
Last 3
1
Manchester City FC
21
31
61–85
55%
94%
–
2
Arsenal FC
18
31
55–79
22%
79%
<1%
3
Brighton & Hove Albion FC
16
31
53–77
14%
70%
<1%
4
Liverpool FC
12
31
45–69
2%
26%
2%
5
AFC Bournemouth
6
31
44–68
1%
22%
3%
6
Chelsea FC
13
31
44–68
1%
21%
3%
7
Brentford FC
10
31
43–67
1%
20%
3%
8
Everton FC
10
31
42–66
<1%
16%
4%
9
Leeds United FC
10
31
42–66
<1%
15%
5%
10
Nottingham Forest FC
5
31
40–64
<1%
11%
7%
11
Manchester United FC
7
31
39–63
<1%
9%
9%
12
Fulham FC
5
31
35–59
<1%
3%
22%
13
Hull City AFC
9
31
35–59
<1%
3%
24%
14
Tottenham Hotspur FC
6
31
35–58
<1%
2%
24%
15
Aston Villa FC
8
31
35–58
<1%
2%
24%
16
Newcastle United FC
8
31
34–58
<1%
2%
26%
17
Ipswich Town FC
9
31
33–56
<1%
1%
33%
18
Coventry City FC
6
31
33–56
<1%
1%
34%
19
Crystal Palace FC
7
31
32–56
<1%
1%
35%
20
Sunderland AFC
4
31
31–55
–
<1%
43%
90% range of final pointsmedian

Current points plus 10,000 simulated runs of the remaining fixtures. Each team's attack and defence is estimated from its xG and xGA so far (pulled towards the league average early in the season), including home advantage. Team strength itself is treated as known, so the real uncertainty is somewhat wider.

Strength of schedule

Hardest remaining schedule first
No.
Club
Next 6 opponents
Rest
So far
1
Coventry City FC (A)Aston Villa FC (A)Newcastle United FCManchester City FC (A)AFC BournemouthTottenham Hotspur FC (A)
1.36
1.51
2
Crystal Palace FC (A)Everton FCFulham FC (A)Arsenal FCBrighton & Hove Albion FC (A)Manchester United FC
1.36
1.43
3
Brentford FCIpswich Town FCArsenal FC (A)Brighton & Hove Albion FCCrystal Palace FC (A)Nottingham Forest FC
1.37
1.42
4
Arsenal FC (A)Newcastle United FC (A)Coventry City FCBrentford FC (A)Liverpool FCAston Villa FC (A)
1.37
1.47
5
Chelsea FC (A)Crystal Palace FCLeeds United FC (A)Ipswich Town FCSunderland AFC (A)Fulham FC
1.37
1.42
6
Nottingham Forest FCHull City AFC (A)AFC BournemouthTottenham Hotspur FC (A)Aston Villa FCCoventry City FC (A)
1.37
1.36
7
Liverpool FC (A)Manchester City FC (A)Brentford FCHull City AFC (A)Newcastle United FCAFC Bournemouth (A)
1.38
1.47
8
Hull City AFC (A)Nottingham Forest FCBrighton & Hove Albion FC (A)Everton FCManchester United FC (A)Arsenal FC
1.38
1.42
9
Ipswich Town FC (A)Brentford FC (A)Manchester City FCAFC Bournemouth (A)Chelsea FCHull City AFC (A)
1.38
1.44
10
Aston Villa FC (A)Brighton & Hove Albion FCNottingham Forest FC (A)Fulham FCArsenal FC (A)Leeds United FC
1.38
1.47
11
Manchester City FCFulham FCManchester United FC (A)Sunderland AFCIpswich Town FC (A)Everton FC
1.39
1.32
12
AFC BournemouthChelsea FC (A)Aston Villa FCLiverpool FC (A)Brentford FCNewcastle United FC (A)
1.39
1.38
13
Newcastle United FCTottenham Hotspur FC (A)Liverpool FCCoventry City FC (A)Hull City AFCChelsea FC (A)
1.39
1.30
14
Sunderland AFC (A)AFC Bournemouth (A)Tottenham Hotspur FCChelsea FC (A)Coventry City FCManchester City FC (A)
1.39
1.36
15
Fulham FCSunderland AFCEverton FC (A)Crystal Palace FCLeeds United FC (A)Ipswich Town FC
1.39
1.30
16
Everton FCLiverpool FC (A)Hull City AFCNewcastle United FC (A)Manchester City FCBrentford FC (A)
1.40
1.38
17
Manchester United FC (A)Leeds United FCIpswich Town FC (A)Nottingham Forest FCFulham FC (A)Brighton & Hove Albion FC
1.40
1.38
18
Leeds United FCCoventry City FC (A)Chelsea FCAston Villa FC (A)Tottenham Hotspur FCLiverpool FC (A)
1.40
1.26
19
Brighton & Hove Albion FCArsenal FCCrystal Palace FC (A)Manchester United FCEverton FC (A)Sunderland AFC
1.40
1.32
20
Tottenham Hotspur FCManchester United FCSunderland AFC (A)Leeds United FCNottingham Forest FC (A)Crystal Palace FC
1.41
1.28
hard → easyEach value is the expected points an average team would take against that opponent, at that venue. Lower means a tougher fixture. Opponent strength comes from xG and is the same model as the forecast. Away fixtures are marked (A).